2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball Odds
About 2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball
2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball makes its triumphant return after a one-year hiatus, blending dark atmospheric themes with vibrant color splashes to create a visually striking product that captures the excitement of nighttime basketball under bright arena lights. Releasing January 29, 2026, with a Topps.com pre-order beginning January 6, this 100-card set balances established superstars, the highly anticipated 2025 rookie class, and retired legends across a streamlined checklist that emphasizes quality over quantity. Hobby boxes arrive in unique single-pack configurations containing seven cards each, with three autographs guaranteed per box creating exceptional value that positions Midnight as one of the most autograph-rich products on the market. The distinctive aesthetic combines dark backgrounds with brilliant color accents, creating eye-catching contrast that makes cards stand out in any collection. What truly sets this year's Midnight apart is the introduction of the first Rookie Jersey Autographs from the star-studded 2025 NBA Draft class, giving collectors their inaugural opportunities to chase jersey cards combining swatches from top rookies like Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, and Asa Newell with their on-card signatures. <a href="https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=2025+topps+midnight+basketball+hobby+box&campid=5339114036&toolid=10001&mkcid=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hobby boxes deliver tremendous value</a> with three autographs each, making every box opening an event filled with potential hits from across the NBA's past, present, and future.
- Release Date: 2026-01-29
- 1 box format available to compare
Value Analysis
The values above represent the expected cost to obtain each card type based on the stated odds and current box price. These are calculated averages and actual results may vary.
Based on the current box price of approximately $600, you can expect to pay about $85.71 per card in this format. This provides 7 cards per box, offering a straightforward way to build your collection.
In terms of specific card categories, autographs can be expected at approximately $206.41 per auto, parallels come at around $442.04 per parallel, inserts can be obtained at approximately $396.70 per insert, based on the manufacturer-stated odds and box configuration. These expected values help you understand what you might find in each box.
Recommendations based on manufacturer-stated odds and box prices at time of last update. Actual prices and results may vary.
| Category | Expected / Box | Cost / Hit | Hit Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Cards | 1.00 | $599.99 | 100% |
| Inserts | 1.51 | $396.70 | 79% |
| Parallels | 1.36 | $442.04 | 80% |
| Autographs | 2.91 | $206.41 | 95% |
Multi-Box Projections
| Boxes | Base | Inserts | Parallels | Autographs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 8.7 |
| 5 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 14.5 |
| 10 | 10.0 | 15.1 | 13.6 | 29.1 |
ℹ️ Methodology & FAQ
Expected / Box: We analyze how many packs are in a box and the odds for each card type, then calculate the average you'd get across many boxes.
Hit Probability: We calculate your chance of getting at least one card by combining the odds for all cards in that category. This accounts for each card being pulled independently.
Data Source: Manufacturer odds sheets. May be incomplete or contain errors.
Accuracy: These represent mathematical averages. Your actual results may vary.
Missing Categories: If a category doesn't appear, those cards aren't listed in the odds sheet. This could mean they don't exist in this product, or the data is incomplete.
Scroll horizontally to see all pack comparisons →
Hobby $ Enter box price | |
|---|---|
| Price | $599.99 |
| Cards / Box | 7 |
| Cost / Card | 85.71 |
| Packs | 1 |
| Cost / Pack | 599.99 |
| Card↑ | CostCost |
| $599.99 | |
| $1,199.98 | |
| $2,399.96 | |
| $3,599.94 | |
| $4,799.92 | |
| $7,199.88 | |
| $9,599.84 | |
| $11,399.81 | |
| $13,799.77 | |
| $16,799.72 | |
| $27,599.54 | |
| $66,598.89 | |
| $110,398.16 | |
| $329,394.51 | |
| $2,999.95 | |
| $4,799.92 | |
| $12,599.79 | |
| $18,599.69 | |
| $26,399.56 | |
| $33,599.44 | |
| $37,199.38 | |
| $46,199.23 | |
| $76,798.72 | |
| $185,396.91 | |
| $311,394.81 | |
| $916,184.73 | |
| $2,999.95 | |
| $10,799.82 | |
| $16,199.73 | |
| $23,399.61 | |
| $20,399.66 | |
| $32,399.46 | |
| $40,799.32 | |
| $67,198.88 | |
| $160,797.32 | |
| $269,995.50 | |
| $802,186.63 | |
| $4,799.92 | |
| $8,399.86 | |
| $21,599.64 | |
| $32,399.46 | |
| $40,799.32 | |
| $44,399.26 | |
| $61,798.97 | |
| $77,398.71 | |
| $127,797.87 | |
| $305,394.91 | |
| $509,391.51 | |
| $1,526,974.55 | |
| $5,399.91 | |
| $9,599.84 | |
| $22,799.62 | |
| $34,199.43 | |
| $42,599.29 | |
| $48,599.19 | |
| $64,198.93 | |
| $80,398.66 | |
| $134,397.76 | |
| $320,994.65 | |
| $534,591.09 | |
| $1,603,773.27 | |
| $13,799.77 | |
| $11,999.80 | |
| $72,598.79 | |
| $72,598.79 | |
| $133,797.77 | |
| $101,998.30 | |
| $130,197.83 | |
| $161,397.31 | |
| $267,595.54 | |
| $641,389.31 | |
| $1,069,182.18 | |
| $3,206,946.55 | |
| $12,599.79 | |
| $44,999.25 | |
| $47,999.20 | |
| $71,998.80 | |
| $125,997.90 | |
| $92,398.46 | |
| $128,997.85 | |
| $160,797.32 | |
| $269,995.50 | |
| $641,389.31 | |
| $1,069,182.18 | |
| $3,206,946.55 | |
| $32,399.46 | |
| $94,798.42 | |
| $107,998.20 | |
| $160,797.32 | |
| $214,196.43 | |
| $185,396.91 | |
| $256,795.72 | |
| $323,994.60 | |
| $534,591.09 | |
| $1,336,177.73 | |
| $2,290,761.82 | |
| $6,413,293.11 | |
| $5,399.91 | |
| $23,999.60 | |
| $34,199.43 | |
| $43,799.27 | |
| $59,399.01 | |
| $53,999.10 | |
| $67,198.88 | |
| $111,598.14 | |
| $267,595.54 | |
| $445,792.57 | |
| $1,336,177.73 | |
| $10,199.83 | |
| $25,199.58 | |
| $34,199.43 | |
| $48,599.19 | |
| $85,798.57 | |
| $64,198.93 | |
| $76,798.72 | |
| $121,797.97 | |
| $291,595.14 | |
| $485,991.90 | |
| $1,457,975.70 | |
| $8,999.85 | |
| $26,999.55 | |
| $34,199.43 | |
| $46,199.23 | |
| $53,999.10 | |
| $53,999.10 | |
| $67,198.88 | |
| $111,598.14 | |
| $267,595.54 | |
| $445,792.57 | |
| $1,336,177.73 | |
| $2,399.96 | |
| $5,399.91 | |
| $12,599.79 | |
| $16,199.73 | |
| $22,799.62 | |
| $20,399.66 | |
| $31,799.47 | |
| $39,599.34 | |
| $65,398.91 | |
| $156,597.39 | |
| $260,995.65 | |
| $782,386.96 | |
| $16,199.73 | |
| $35,399.41 | |
| $114,598.09 | |
| $46,199.23 | |
| $41,399.31 | |
| $68,998.85 | |
| $164,997.25 | |
| $274,195.43 | |
| $822,586.29 | |
| $320,994.65 | |
| $464,992.25 | |
| $464,992.25 | |
| $641,389.31 | |
| $822,586.29 | |
| $1,336,177.73 | |
| $3,206,946.55 | |
| $5,344,110.93 | |
| $16,032,332.79 | |
| $4,799.92 | |
| $8,999.85 | |
| $13,799.77 | |
| $17,999.70 | |
| $26,999.55 | |
| $37,799.37 | |
| $44,399.26 | |
| $53,399.11 | |
| $66,598.89 | |
| $110,398.16 | |
| $263,395.61 | |
| $439,192.68 | |
| $1,316,378.06 | |
| $5,999.90 | |
| $11,399.81 | |
| $16,799.72 | |
| $22,199.63 | |
| $33,599.44 | |
| $47,399.21 | |
| $55,199.08 | |
| $66,598.89 | |
| $82,798.62 | |
| $137,397.71 | |
| $329,394.51 | |
| $544,790.92 | |
| $1,579,173.68 | |
| $4,799.92 | |
| $8,999.85 | |
| $13,799.77 | |
| $17,999.70 | |
| $26,999.55 | |
| $37,799.37 | |
| $44,399.26 | |
| $53,399.11 | |
| $66,598.89 | |
| $110,398.16 | |
| $263,395.61 | |
| $439,192.68 | |
| $1,316,378.06 | |
| $4,199.93 | |
| $7,799.87 | |
| $11,399.81 | |
| $14,999.75 | |
| $22,199.63 | |
| $31,799.47 | |
| $37,199.38 | |
| $44,399.26 | |
| $55,199.08 | |
| $92,398.46 | |
| $219,596.34 | |
| $367,793.87 | |
| $1,089,581.84 | |
| $16,799.72 | |
| $1,089,581.84 | |
| $16,799.72 | |
| $1,089,581.84 | |
| $19,799.67 | |
| $1,316,378.06 | |
| $32,399.46 |
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