2025-26 Topps Holiday Basketball Odds
About 2025-26 Topps Holiday Basketball
2025-26 Topps Holiday Basketball brings the long-time festive release outside of the world of baseball for the first time, transforming 200 cards from the flagship 2025-26 Topps Basketball set into a winter wonderland of collecting joy. Releasing October 30, 2025, this debut basketball Holiday edition applies the beloved festive treatment that baseball collectors have cherished for years, with scrolling design accents transformed into candy canes wrapped in evergreen garland and holiday lights while snowflakes surround player images on every base card. The 200-card set breaks down into 160 established veterans and 40 rookies from the highly anticipated 2025 draft class, giving collectors a concentrated checklist focused on the NBA's current stars and tomorrow's superstars. What makes Holiday Basketball particularly special is the dual-format approach that serves two distinctly different collecting experiences. <a href=\"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=2025+topps+holiday+basketball+mega+box&campid=5339114036&toolid=10001&mkcid=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mega Boxes deliver premium parallel content</a> with eight Glitter parallels, one SSP variation, and one die-cut ornament guaranteed per box, creating an experience focused on shiny hits and rare variations. Meanwhile, the 24-pack Advent Calendars offer a month-long countdown experience with 24 Plaid parallels and 24 exclusive inserts, making each day leading up to the holidays a mini-opening event. While autographs and relics are included in the product, they represent the true chase hits with tougher odds that make every pull feel genuinely special. The combination of two distinct formats, festive design elements, and the expanded checklist format creates a product that bridges the gap between casual holiday fun and serious collecting.
- Release Date: 2025-10-30
- 5 box formats available to compare
Value Recommendations
These values represent the expected cost to hit one card, autograph, parallel, or insert based on the format's odds and box price.
SKU 5 Pack Rate offers the lowest cost per card at approximately $0.00 per card. Compared to other formats, this provides the most economical way to build the base set.
When targeting specific card categories, target Advent SKU 3 for autographs at approximately $4.12 per auto; Advent SKU 3 offers the best value for parallels at $1.02 per parallel; Advent SKU 3 leads for insert value at $2.72 per insert; Advent SKU 3 provides the best value for relics at $5.87 per relic. These recommendations are based on expected hit rates and box prices.
Box prices range from approximately $0 to $50. The premium formats typically offer better hit rates but lower overall card value, while value-oriented formats provide more cards per dollar spent.
Recommendations based on manufacturer-stated odds and box prices at time of last update. Actual prices and results may vary.
Incomplete Odds Data Detected:
This odds sheet accounts for approximately 20 cards per box, but the actual box contains 100 cards. Base cards may be significantly undercounted.
Cost calculations may be inaccurate due to missing data.
| Category | Expected / Box | Cost / Hit | Hit Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Cards | 10.00 | $3.50 | 100% |
| Inserts | 1.97 | $17.77 | 100% |
| Parallels | 7.08 | $4.94 | 100% |
| Autographs | 0.04 | $977.36 | 4% |
| Relics | 0.51 | $68.38 | 42% |
Multi-Box Projections
| Boxes | Base | Inserts | Parallels | Autographs | Relics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 30.0 | 5.9 | 21.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 50.0 | 9.8 | 35.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 |
| 10 | 100.0 | 19.7 | 70.8 | 0.4 | 5.1 |
ℹ️ Methodology & FAQ
Expected / Box: We analyze how many packs are in a box and the odds for each card type, then calculate the average you'd get across many boxes.
Hit Probability: We calculate your chance of getting at least one card by combining the odds for all cards in that category. This accounts for each card being pulled independently.
Data Source: Manufacturer odds sheets. May be incomplete or contain errors.
Accuracy: These represent mathematical averages. Your actual results may vary.
Missing Categories: If a category doesn't appear, those cards aren't listed in the odds sheet. This could mean they don't exist in this product, or the data is incomplete.
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Mega SKU 1 $ Enter box price | Mega SKU 2 $ Enter box price | Advent SKU 3 $ Enter box price | Advent SKU 4 $ Enter box price | SKU 5 Pack Rate $ Enter box price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $34.99 | $34.99 | $49.99 | $49.99 | N/A |
| Cards / Box | 100 | 100 | 96 | 96 | 0 |
| Cost / Card | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.52 | 0.52 | N/A |
| Packs | 10 | 10 | 24 | 24 | - |
| Cost / Pack | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 2.08 | N/A |
| Card↑ | CostCost | CostCost | CostCost | CostCost | CostCost |
| $3.50 | $3.50 | $2.08 | $2.08 | #VALUE! | |
| $7.00 | $7.00 | $120.81 | N/A | N/A | |
| $34.99 | $34.99 | $8.33 | N/A | N/A | |
| $34.99 | $34.99 | $8.33 | N/A | N/A | |
| $797.77 | $1,298.13 | $12.50 | N/A | N/A | |
| $3,152.60 | $5,140.03 | $16.66 | N/A | N/A | |
| $7,886.75 | $12,851.83 | $22.91 | N/A | N/A | |
| $15,769.99 | $25,721.15 | $31.24 | N/A | N/A | |
| $79,486.78 | $128,822.68 | $45.82 | N/A | N/A | |
| $10,504.00 | $10,500.50 | $91.65 | N/A | N/A | |
| $10,504.00 | $10,500.50 | $224.96 | N/A | N/A | |
| $10,504.00 | $10,500.50 | $451.99 | N/A | N/A | |
| $10,504.00 | $10,500.50 | $2,255.80 | N/A | N/A | |
| $10,504.00 | $10,500.50 | $451.99 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | N/A | $8.33 | $2.08 | N/A | |
| $1,326.12 | $1,140.67 | $8.33 | N/A | N/A | |
| $6,095.26 | $10,070.12 | $10.41 | N/A | N/A | |
| $15,234.65 | $25,171.81 | $16.66 | N/A | N/A | |
| $30,469.29 | $50,343.61 | $31.24 | N/A | N/A | |
| $152,339.46 | $251,718.06 | $79.15 | N/A | N/A | |
| $80.48 | $80.48 | $156.22 | N/A | N/A | |
| $80.48 | $80.48 | $6.25 | N/A | N/A | |
| $699.80 | $699.80 | $10.41 | N/A | N/A | |
| $699.80 | $699.80 | $22.91 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | N/A | $45.82 | $12.50 | N/A | |
| N/A | N/A | $112.48 | $4.17 | N/A | |
| $262.43 | $136.46 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $545.84 | $899.24 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $808.27 | $1,333.12 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $1,623.54 | $2,680.23 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $15,878.46 | $26,232.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $150,817.40 | $249,198.78 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $1,371.61 | $2,267.35 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $27,421.66 | $45,312.05 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $62,842.04 | $103,832.83 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $603,266.09 | $996,791.62 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $188.95 | $314.91 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $15,084.19 | $24,916.38 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $37,705.22 | $62,299.70 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $377,041.74 | $622,996.95 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $1,207.16 | $1,994.43 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $24,132.60 | $39,874.60 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $60,329.76 | $99,679.51 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $603,266.09 | $996,791.62 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| $34.99 | $34.99 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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