2025 Bowman Draft Baseball Odds

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About 2025 Bowman Draft Baseball

2025 Bowman Draft Baseball puts the top selections from the 2025 MLB Draft into focus through a 200-card set featuring highly coveted 1st Bowman cards of baseball's newest professional prospects. Released January 14, 2026, the product offers multiple box configurations creating diverse collecting opportunities across different budgets and preferences. Standard hobby boxes deliver twelve 32-card packs guaranteeing three autographs per box, while super jumbo boxes expand to five 120-card packs featuring five autographs creating amplified hit content. New mega boxes introduce condensed seven-pack configurations with five cards per pack including two exclusive Mega Chrome packs unavailable in other formats. The base set spans 200 cards available in both traditional paper and Chrome versions, with 20 players receiving premium Etched In Glass Variations including top draft selections Eli Willits (#1 overall, Washington Nationals), Tyler Bremner (#2, Los Angeles Angels), Kade Anderson (#3, Seattle Mariners), Liam Doyle (#5, St. Louis Cardinals), Seth Hernandez (#6, Pittsburgh Pirates), JoJo Parker (#8, Toronto Blue Jays), Steele Hall (#9, Cincinnati Reds), and Billy Carlson (#10, Chicago White Sox). Ten players receive Image Variations featuring alternate photography, while another ten prospects appear in Chrome variations showcasing their collegiate uniforms creating nostalgic connections to amateur careers. Retrofractors deliver 1st Bowman treatment to legends Lou Brock representing the Chicago Cubs and Japanese icon Sadaharu Oh from Yomiuri Giants, with Oh receiving autographed versions creating cross-generational collecting opportunities.

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  • Release Date: 2026-01-14
  • 3 box formats available to compare
Jump to Value Sheet

Value Recommendations

For Cost per Card:Super Jumbo$1.25For Autos:Super Jumbo$167For Parallels:Super Jumbo$374For Inserts:Hobby$13.2

These values represent the expected cost to hit one card, autograph, parallel, or insert based on the format's odds and box price.

Super Jumbo offers the lowest cost per card at approximately $1.25 per card. Compared to other formats, this provides the most economical way to build the base set.

When targeting specific card categories, target Super Jumbo for autographs at approximately $167.18 per auto; Super Jumbo offers the best value for parallels at $373.57 per parallel; Hobby leads for insert value at $13.15 per insert. These recommendations are based on expected hit rates and box prices.

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Recommendations based on manufacturer-stated odds and box prices at time of last update. Actual prices and results may vary.

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$
384 cards/box12 packs/box
⚠️

Incomplete Odds Data Detected:

This odds sheet accounts for approximately 57 cards per box, but the actual box contains 384 cards. Base cards may be significantly undercounted.

Cost calculations may be inaccurate due to missing data.

CategoryExpected / BoxCost / HitHit Chance
Base Cards12.00$44.17100%
Inserts40.30$13.15100%
Parallels1.36$391.1289%
Autographs2.89$183.68100%
Definitions: Base Cards (non-parallel base only) • Parallels (base card parallels only) • Inserts (all inserts including insert parallels) • Auto Relics (auto + relic) • Autos (non-relic autos only, include auto parallels) • Relics (non-auto relics only)

Multi-Box Projections

BoxesBaseInsertsParallelsAutographs
112.040.31.42.9
336.0120.94.18.7
560.0201.56.814.4
10120.0403.013.628.9
ℹ️ Methodology & FAQ

Expected / Box: We analyze how many packs are in a box and the odds for each card type, then calculate the average you'd get across many boxes.

Hit Probability: We calculate your chance of getting at least one card by combining the odds for all cards in that category. This accounts for each card being pulled independently.

Data Source: Manufacturer odds sheets. May be incomplete or contain errors.

Accuracy: These represent mathematical averages. Your actual results may vary.

Missing Categories: If a category doesn't appear, those cards aren't listed in the odds sheet. This could mean they don't exist in this product, or the data is incomplete.

How to use: Enter your box price in the blue input field to calculate the cost per card type. Use the toggle to switch between "Show Cost" and "Show Odds Only" views. Costs are color-coded from green (best value) to red (highest cost).

Scroll horizontally to see all pack comparisons →

Hobby
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Super Jumbo
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Breaker
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Price$529.99$749.95$949.99
Cards / Box38460010
Cost / Card1.381.2595.00
Packs1251
Cost / Pack44.17149.99949.99
Card↑CostCostCost
BASE CARDS
$44.17$149.99N/A
BASE CARDS SKY BLUE PARALLEL
$662.49$599.96N/A
BASE CARDS BLUE BORDER PARALLEL
$2,208.29$2,099.86N/A
BASE CARDS GREEN PARALLEL
$3,312.44$2,999.80N/A
BASE CARDS GOLD PARALLEL
$6,536.54$5,999.60N/A
BASE CARDS ORANGE PARALLEL
$9,186.49N/AN/A
BASE CARDS RED PARALLEL
$65,188.77$59,096.06N/A
BASE CARDS BLACK PARALLEL
$324,928.04$296,980.20N/A
BASE CARDS PRINTING PLATES
$81,397.63$73,945.07N/A
CHROME BASE CARDS
$44.17$149.99$949.99
CHROME BASE CARDS REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$44.17$149.99N/A
CHROME BASE CARDS SKY BLUE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$529.99N/AN/A
CHROME BASE CARDS X-FRACTOR PARALLEL
$529.99$749.95N/A
CHROME BASE CARDS PURPLE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$1,324.98$1,199.92$89,299.06
CHROME BASE CARDS SPARKLES REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$1,678.30$1,499.90$112,098.82
CHROME BASE CARDS FUCHSIA REPTILIAN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$1,678.30$1,499.90$113,048.81
CHROME BASE CARDS BLUE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$2,208.29$2,099.86$150,098.42
CHROME BASE CARDS AQUA WAVE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$2,649.95$2,399.84$179,548.11
CHROME BASE CARDS AQUA REPTILIAN PARALLEL
$2,649.95$2,399.84$179,548.11
CHROME BASE CARDS STEEL METAL REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$3,312.44$2,999.80$224,197.64
CHROME BASE CARDS GREEN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$3,356.60$3,149.79$227,047.61
CHROME BASE CARDS GREEN GRASS REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$3,356.60$3,149.79$227,047.61
CHROME BASE CARDS GREEN REPTILIAN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$3,356.60$3,149.79$227,047.61
CHROME BASE CARDS BOWMANFRACTOR PARALLEL
$9,407.32$8,549.43$645,993.20
CHROME BASE CARDS YELLOW REPTILIAN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$4,416.58$4,049.73$298,296.86
CHROME BASE CARDS YELLOW REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$4,416.58$4,049.73$298,296.86
CHROME BASE CARDS GOLD REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$6,580.71$5,999.60$451,245.25
CHROME BASE CARDS ORANGE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$9,186.49N/AN/A
CHROME BASE CARDS BLACK REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$32,859.38$29,848.01$2,282,825.97
CHROME BASE CARDS BLACK X-FRACTOR PARALLEL
$32,859.38$29,848.01$2,282,825.97
CHROME BASE CARDS RED LAVA REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$65,674.59$59,396.04$4,279,704.95
CHROME BASE CARDS RED REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$65,674.59$59,396.04$4,279,704.95
CHROME BASE CARDS SUPERFRACTOR
$327,357.16$395,973.60$3,423,763.96
CHROME BASE CARDS PRINTING PLATES
$82,148.45$74,245.05$5,705,639.94
CHROME BASE CARDS PURPLE GEOMETRIC
N/AN/A$1,899.98
CHROME BASE CARDS GREEN GEOMETRIC
N/AN/A$2,849.97
CHROME BASE CARDS YELLOW GEOMETRIC
N/AN/A$3,799.96
CHROME BASE CARDS ORANGE GEOMETRIC
N/AN/A$10,449.89
CHROME BASE CARDS BLACK GEOMETRIC
N/AN/A$24,699.74
CHROME BASE CARDS RED GEOMETRIC
N/AN/A$48,449.49
AXIS
$132.50$149.99$3,799.96
AXIS REFRACTOR
$13,161.42$11,999.20$901,540.51
AXIS MINI-DIAMOND
$21,906.25$19,948.67$1,488,634.33
AXIS GREEN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$33,212.71$30,147.99$2,282,825.97
AXIS GOLD REFRACTOR
$65,674.59$59,396.04$4,279,704.95
AXIS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$91,997.43N/AN/A
AXIS BLACK REFRACTOR
$327,357.16$296,980.20$17,116,919.82
AXIS RED REFRACTOR
$664,607.46$593,960.40$34,233,839.64
AXIS SUPERFRACTOR
$3,374,004.67$2,771,815.20N/A
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT
$265.00$299.98$7,599.92
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT REFRACTOR
$26,322.84$23,848.41$1,802,131.03
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT MINI-DIAMOND
$43,856.67$39,597.36$3,112,167.24
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT GREEN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$66,381.25$60,145.99$4,279,704.95
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT GOLD REFRACTOR
$131,349.19$118,792.08$8,558,459.91
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT ORANGE REFRACTOR
$184,304.02N/AN/A
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT BLACK REFRACTOR
$664,607.46$593,960.40$34,233,839.64
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT RED REFRACTOR
$1,329,170.75$1,187,920.80N/A
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT SUPERFRACTOR
$6,266,027.60$5,543,630.40N/A
BOWMAN IN ACTION BASE
$529.99$449.97$2,849.97
BOWMAN IN ACTION MINI-DIAMOND
$14,618.89$13,349.11$1,006,989.40
BOWMAN IN ACTION GREEN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$22,127.08$20,098.66$1,488,634.33
BOWMAN IN ACTION GOLD REFRACTOR
$43,856.67$39,747.35$3,112,167.24
BOWMAN IN ACTION ORANGE REFRACTOR
$61,346.34N/AN/A
BOWMAN IN ACTION BLACK REFRACTOR
$219,327.53$197,986.80$17,116,919.82
BOWMAN IN ACTION RED REFRACTOR
$443,071.64$395,973.60$34,233,839.64
BOWMAN IN ACTION SUPERFRACTOR
$2,193,098.62$2,078,861.40N/A
PRIZED PROSPECTS
$132.50$149.99$3,799.96
PRIZED PROSPECTS REFRACTOR
$13,161.42$11,999.20$901,540.51
PRIZED PROSPECTS MINI-DIAMOND
$21,906.25$19,948.67$1,488,634.33
PRIZED PROSPECTS GREEN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$33,212.71$30,147.99$2,282,825.97
PRIZED PROSPECTS GOLD REFRACTOR
$65,674.59$59,396.04$4,279,704.95
PRIZED PROSPECTS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$91,997.43N/AN/A
PRIZED PROSPECTS BLACK REFRACTOR
$327,357.16$296,980.20$17,116,919.82
PRIZED PROSPECTS RED REFRACTOR
$664,607.46$593,960.40$34,233,839.64
PRIZED PROSPECTS SUPERFRACTOR
$3,374,004.67$2,771,815.20N/A
BOWMAN SPOTLIGHTS
$29,237.78$26,548.23$2,013,978.80
BOWMAN SPOTLIGHTS RED REFRACTOR
$877,265.95$791,947.20$34,233,839.64
BOWMAN SPOTLIGHTS SUPERFRACTOR
$4,386,197.24$4,157,722.80N/A
CHROME PROSPECT COLLEGE VARIATIONS
$32,859.38$29,848.01$2,282,825.97
CHROME PROSPECT COLLEGE VARIATIONS GOLD REFRACTOR
$131,349.19$118,792.08$8,558,459.91
CHROME PROSPECT COLLEGE VARIATIONS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$184,304.02N/AN/A
CHROME PROSPECT COLLEGE VARIATIONS BLACK REFRACTOR
$327,357.16$296,980.20$17,116,919.82
CHROME PROSPECT COLLEGE VARIATIONS RED REFRACTOR
$1,329,170.75$1,187,920.80N/A
CHROME PROSPECT COLLEGE VARIATIONS SUPERFRACTOR
$6,266,027.60$5,543,630.40N/A
CRYSTALIZED BASE
$43,856.67$39,597.36$3,112,167.24
CRYSTALIZED SUPERFRACTOR
$4,386,197.24$4,157,722.80N/A
CRYSTALIZED GOLD REFRACTOR
$87,757.51$79,194.72$5,705,639.94
CRYSTALIZED ORANGE REFRACTOR
$122,560.19N/AN/A
CRYSTALIZED BLACK REFRACTOR
$443,071.64$395,973.60$34,233,839.64
CRYSTALIZED RED REFRACTOR
$877,265.95$791,947.20$34,233,839.64
DREAM DRAFT PICKS BASE
$131,349.19$118,792.08$8,558,459.91
DREAM DRAFT PICKS AQUA LAVA REFRACTOR
$329,830.44$296,980.20$17,116,919.82
DREAM DRAFT PICKS BLUE REFRACTOR
$443,071.64$395,973.60$34,233,839.64
DREAM DRAFT PICKS GREEN REFRACTOR
$664,607.46$593,960.40$34,233,839.64
DREAM DRAFT PICKS YELLOW REFRACTOR
$877,265.95$791,947.20$34,233,839.64
DREAM DRAFT PICKS GOLD REFRACTOR
$1,329,170.75$1,187,920.80N/A
DREAM DRAFT PICKS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$1,827,582.18N/AN/A
DREAM DRAFT PICKS RED REFRACTOR
$14,620,657.47$16,630,891.20N/A
DREAM DRAFT PICKS SUPERFRACTOR
$43,862,016.57N/AN/A
DREAM DRAFT PICKS REFRACTOR
$219,327.53$197,986.80$17,116,919.82
ETCHED-IN GLASS VARIATION
$16,429.69$14,999.00$1,104,838.37
FINAL DRAFT
$16,429.69$14,999.00$1,104,838.37
FINAL DRAFT RED REFRACTOR
$664,607.46$593,960.40$34,233,839.64
FINAL DRAFT SUPERFRACTOR
$3,374,004.67$2,771,815.20N/A
IMAGE VARIATIONS
$18,770.48$17,098.86$1,268,236.65
RETROFRACTOR VARIATIONS
$131,349.19$118,792.08$8,558,459.91
RETROFRACTOR VARIATIONS GOLD REFRACTOR
$664,607.46$593,960.40$34,233,839.64
RETROFRACTOR VARIATIONS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$933,268.22N/AN/A
RETROFRACTOR VARIATIONS BLACK REFRACTOR
$3,374,004.67$2,771,815.20N/A
RETROFRACTOR VARIATIONS RED REFRACTOR
$6,266,027.60$5,543,630.40N/A
RETROFRACTOR VARIATIONS SUPERFRACTOR
$43,862,016.57$16,630,891.20N/A
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION
$353.33$299.98$949.99
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$1,501.64$1,349.91$5,699.94
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION PURPLE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$3,003.28$2,699.82$11,399.88
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION AQUA LAVA REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$3,709.93$3,299.78$14,249.85
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION BLUE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$4,902.41$4,349.71$18,049.81
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION BLUE WAVE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$4,858.24$4,349.71$18,049.81
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION GREEN REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$7,419.86$6,599.56$27,549.71
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION YELLOW REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$5,962.39N/AN/A
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION SPARKLES REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$10,202.31$9,149.39$37,999.60
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION GOLD REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$14,574.73$13,049.13$54,149.43
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION GOLD WAVE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$14,530.56$13,049.13$53,199.44
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION ORANGE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$17,533.84N/AN/A
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION BLACK REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$71,813.65$63,745.75$264,097.22
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION BLACK X-FRACTOR REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$72,520.30$64,495.70$265,997.20
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION RED LAVA REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$142,876.47$127,041.53$527,244.45
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION RED REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$142,876.47$127,041.53$527,244.45
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION SUPERFRACTOR
$707,492.48$639,707.35$2,633,372.28
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION PRINTING PLATES
$181,256.58$161,539.23$671,642.93
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION HTA CHOICE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
N/AN/A$2,849.97
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION GREEN LAVA REFRACTOR PARALLEL
N/AN/A$3,799.96
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION GOLD SHIMMER REFRACTOR PARALLEL
N/AN/A$7,599.92
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION ORANGE WAVE REFRACTOR PARALLEL
N/AN/A$14,249.85
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPH VARIATION RED X-FRACTOR REFRACTOR PARALLEL
N/AN/A$69,349.27
CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPHS GOLD INK VARIATION
$75,391.08$67,195.52$276,447.09
DRAFT PROSPECT PORTRAIT AUTOGRAPHS
$178,341.64$158,389.44$645,993.20
DREAM DRAFT PICKS AUTOGRAPH VARIATION GOLD REFRACTOR
$1,414,940.80$1,279,414.70$4,890,548.52
DREAM DRAFT PICKS AUTOGRAPH VARIATION ORANGE REFRACTOR
$1,754,487.73N/AN/A
DREAM DRAFT PICKS AUTOGRAPH VARIATION RED REFRACTOR
$14,620,657.47$16,630,891.20$34,233,839.64
DREAM DRAFT PICKS AUTOGRAPH VARIATION SUPERFRACTOR
$43,862,016.57N/AN/A
RETROFRACTOR AUTOGRAPH VARIATION GOLD REFRACTOR
$1,414,940.80$1,279,414.70$4,890,548.52
RETROFRACTOR AUTOGRAPH VARIATION ORANGE REFRACTOR
$1,754,487.73N/AN/A
RETROFRACTOR AUTOGRAPH VARIATION RED REFRACTOR
$14,620,657.47$16,630,891.20$34,233,839.64
RETROFRACTOR AUTOGRAPH VARIATION SUPERFRACTOR
$43,862,016.57N/AN/A
ACHROMATIC AUTOGRAPHS REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$10,820.63$9,749.35$39,899.58
ACHROMATIC AUTOGRAPHS GREEN REFRACTOR
$27,338.65$24,448.37$100,698.94
ACHROMATIC AUTOGRAPHS GOLD REFRACTOR
$54,103.15$48,146.79$198,547.91
ACHROMATIC AUTOGRAPHS RED REFRACTOR
$516,033.60$461,969.20$1,901,879.98
ACHROMATIC AUTOGRAPHS SUPERFRACTOR
$2,580,123.82$2,375,841.60$8,558,459.91
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT AUTOGRAPHS REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$147,204.72$131,091.26$543,394.28
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT AUTOGRAPHS GOLD MINI-DIAMOND REFRACTOR
$294,409.45$259,932.67$1,070,638.73
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT AUTOGRAPHS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$353,768.33N/AN/A
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT AUTOGRAPHS RED REFRACTOR
$2,924,131.49$2,375,841.60$11,411,279.88
BOWMAN DRAFT NIGHT AUTOGRAPHS SUPERFRACTOR
$14,620,657.47$16,630,891.20$34,233,839.64
BOWMAN IN ACTION AUTOGRAPHS REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$52,689.84$46,946.87$192,847.97
BOWMAN IN ACTION AUTOGRAPHS WAVE REFRACTOR
$69,649.52$61,945.87$255,547.31
BOWMAN IN ACTION AUTOGRAPHS GOLD MINI-DIAMOND REFRACTOR
$104,452.20$92,993.80$380,945.99
BOWMAN IN ACTION AUTOGRAPHS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$127,506.76N/AN/A
BOWMAN IN ACTION AUTOGRAPHS RED REFRACTOR
$974,739.94$875,341.64$3,423,763.96
BOWMAN IN ACTION AUTOGRAPHS SUPERFRACTOR
$4,873,567.21$4,157,722.80$17,116,919.82
IMAGE VARIATIONS AUTOGRAPHS REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$147,204.72$131,091.26$543,394.28
PRIZED PROSPECTS AUTOGRAPHS REFRACTOR PARALLEL
$81,839.29$73,045.13$301,146.83
PRIZED PROSPECTS AUTOGRAPHS RED REFRACTOR
$1,624,551.85$1,385,907.60$5,705,639.94
PRIZED PROSPECTS AUTOGRAPHS SUPERFRACTOR
$8,772,394.48$8,315,445.60$34,233,839.64
2025 DRAFT LOTTERY PING PONG BALL AUTOGRAPHS
$10,965,537.27$8,315,445.60$34,233,839.64
PROSPECT DUAL AUTOGRAPHS
$61,434.67$54,746.35$226,097.62
PROSPECT DUAL AUTOGRAPHS GOLD REFRACTOR
$112,490.38$100,193.32$413,245.65
PROSPECT DUAL AUTOGRAPHS ORANGE REFRACTOR
$137,090.75N/AN/A
PROSPECT DUAL AUTOGRAPHS BLACK REFRACTOR
$522,172.65$461,969.20$1,901,879.98
PROSPECT DUAL AUTOGRAPHS RED REFRACTOR
$1,044,345.30$923,938.40$3,803,759.96
PROSPECT DUAL AUTOGRAPHS SUPERFRACTOR
$4,873,567.21$4,157,722.80$17,116,919.82

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