2025 Topps Holiday Baseball Odds

Advent Calendar Format Note

The 2025 Topps Holiday Advent Calendar contains 24 packs, but 4 of the packs (Day 6, Day 12, Day 18, and Day 24) are special oversized packs with different card counts than the standard daily packs. The total card count shown is approximate due to these variations.

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About 2025 Topps Holiday Baseball

As the holiday season approaches, 2025 Topps Holiday Baseball arrives with festive reimaginings of flagship cards wrapped in seasonal cheer. Released October 22, 2025, this beloved annual release transforms 200 cards from Series 1, Series 2, and Update Series into holiday collectibles featuring candy cane design accents, evergreen garland, holiday lights, and snowflake borders. The three-format structure offers collectors distinct experiences: Mega Boxes deliver the premium chase with guaranteed hits and glittery parallels, Collector's Tins provide massive single-pack fun with lights-themed variations, and Advent Calendars build daily excitement with exclusive plaid patterns and nostalgic buybacks. What makes 2025 Holiday particularly compelling is the debut of Base Chrome Variations in Mega Boxes—a complete 200-card chromium parallel set that brings Topps Chrome's iconic finish to the holiday lineup for the first time. With three Image Variations, six Glitter Parallels, and guaranteed hit content in every Mega Box, collectors have excellent odds at landing festive surprises. The calendar format returns with 20 holiday packs plus one pack from a past year's Holiday release, creating nostalgic surprises as collectors count down to the holidays. The autograph checklist delivers signature content from the game's brightest stars and most promising prospects. Featuring 40 signers including superstars Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Tucker alongside emerging talents like Paul Skenes, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Lawlar, the Holiday Autographs set offers something for every collector. Player Relics with Blue Metallic and Purple Metallic variations add memorabilia depth, while guaranteed hit content in every Mega Box ensures value at accessible price points.

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  • Release Date: 2025-10-22
  • 6 box formats available to compare
Jump to Value Sheet

Value Recommendations

For Cost per Card:Hobby Collector Tin$0.25For Autos:Mega Box EA$1194For Parallels:Advent Calendar$1.04For Inserts:Advent Calendar$1.04For Relics:Mega Box EA$54.2

These values represent the expected cost to hit one card, autograph, parallel, or insert based on the format's odds and box price.

Hobby Collector Tin offers the lowest cost per card at approximately $0.25 per card. Compared to other formats, this provides the most economical way to build the base set.

When targeting specific card categories, target Mega Box EA for autographs at approximately $1194.31 per auto; Advent Calendar offers the best value for parallels at $1.04 per parallel; Advent Calendar leads for insert value at $1.04 per insert; Mega Box EA provides the best value for relics at $54.17 per relic. These recommendations are based on expected hit rates and box prices.

Box prices range from approximately $15 to $50. The premium formats typically offer better hit rates but lower overall card value, while value-oriented formats provide more cards per dollar spent.

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Recommendations based on manufacturer-stated odds and box prices at time of last update. Actual prices and results may vary.

$
100 cards/box10 packs/box
⚠️

Incomplete Odds Data Detected:

This odds sheet accounts for approximately 40 cards per box, but the actual box contains 100 cards. Base cards may be significantly undercounted.

Cost calculations may be inaccurate due to missing data.

CategoryExpected / BoxCost / HitHit Chance
Base Cards20.00$1.50100%
Inserts4.99$6.02100%
Parallels14.10$2.13100%
Auto Relics0.01$5171.931%
Autographs0.01$2550.261%
Relics0.52$57.9447%
Definitions: Base Cards (non-parallel base only) • Parallels (base card parallels only) • Inserts (all inserts including insert parallels) • Auto Relics (auto + relic) • Autos (non-relic autos only, include auto parallels) • Relics (non-auto relics only)

Multi-Box Projections

BoxesBaseInsertsParallelsAuto RelicsAutographsRelics
120.05.014.10.00.00.5
360.015.042.30.00.01.6
5100.024.970.50.00.12.6
10200.049.9141.00.10.15.2
ℹ️ Methodology & FAQ

Expected / Box: We analyze how many packs are in a box and the odds for each card type, then calculate the average you'd get across many boxes.

Hit Probability: We calculate your chance of getting at least one card by combining the odds for all cards in that category. This accounts for each card being pulled independently.

Data Source: Manufacturer odds sheets. May be incomplete or contain errors.

Accuracy: These represent mathematical averages. Your actual results may vary.

Missing Categories: If a category doesn't appear, those cards aren't listed in the odds sheet. This could mean they don't exist in this product, or the data is incomplete.

How to use: Enter your box price in the blue input field to calculate the cost per card type. Use the toggle to switch between "Show Cost" and "Show Odds Only" views. Costs are color-coded from green (best value) to red (highest cost).

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Mega Box SE
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Mega Box EA
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Hobby Collector Tin
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Advent Calendar
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Retail Collector Tin
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Ecomm Tin
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Price$30.00$30.00$15.00$50.00$15.00$15.00
Cards / Box100100591105959
Cost / Card0.300.300.250.450.250.25
Packs101012411
Cost / Pack3.003.0015.002.0815.0015.00
CardCostCostCostCostCostCost
Base
$3.00$3.00$15.00N/A$15.00$15.00
Base Glitter Holiday
$6.00$6.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Blue Metallic Glitter Holliday
$30.00$30.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Light Blue and White Glitter Holiday
$30.00$30.00$90.00N/A$270.00$270.00
Base Purple Glitter Holiday
$906.00$906.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base 25th
$3,567.00$3,567.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Red Metallic Holiday
$8,916.00$8,916.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Menorah
$11,145.00$11,145.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Green Glitter Holiday
$17,832.00$17,832.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Golden Glitter Holiday
$89,154.00$89,154.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$15.00N/A$15.00$15.00
Base Blue Metallic Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$15.00N/A$15.00$15.00
Base Purple Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$585.00N/A$465.00$465.00
Base Red Metallic Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$5,685.00N/A$4,530.00$4,530.00
Base Green Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$11,370.00N/A$9,045.00$9,045.00
Base Golden Metallic Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$56,850.00N/A$45,270.00$45,270.00
Base Holiday Plaid
N/AN/AN/A$2.08N/AN/A
Base
$3.00$3.00$15.00$2.08$15.00$15.00
Base Glitter Holiday
$6.00$6.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Blue Metallic Glitter Holliday
$30.00$30.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Light Blue and White Glitter Holiday
$30.00$30.00$90.00N/A$270.00$270.00
Base Purple Glitter Holiday
$906.00$906.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base 25th
$3,567.00$3,567.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Red Metallic Holiday
$8,916.00$8,916.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Menorah
$11,145.00$11,145.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Green Glitter Holiday
$17,832.00$17,832.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Golden Glitter Holiday
$89,154.00$89,154.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$15.00N/A$15.00$15.00
Base Blue Metallic Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$15.00N/A$15.00$15.00
Base Purple Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$585.00N/A$465.00$465.00
Base Red Metallic Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$5,685.00N/A$4,530.00$4,530.00
Base Green Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$11,370.00N/A$9,045.00$9,045.00
Base Golden Metallic Holiday Lights
N/AN/A$56,850.00N/A$45,270.00$45,270.00
Base Holiday Plaid
N/AN/AN/A$2.08N/AN/A
Base Holiday Variation SP
$21.00$21.00$15.00N/A$15.00$15.00
Base Holiday Backs Variation SP
$21.00$21.00$90.00N/A$270.00$270.00
Hidden Elf
$600.00$600.00$675.00N/A$360.00$360.00
Holiday Backs Variation SSP
$1,800.00$1,800.00$7,200.00N/A$21,600.00$21,600.00
Holiday Variation SSP
$1,800.00$1,800.00$7,200.00N/A$21,600.00$21,600.00
The Santa Archives
$600.00$600.00$675.00N/A$360.00$360.00
Evergreen
N/AN/AN/A$2.08N/AN/A
Making the NICE List
N/AN/AN/A$2.08N/AN/A
Player Relics
$75.00$72.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Relics Blue Metallic
$618.00$603.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Relics Purple Metallic
$936.00$858.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Relics Glitter Holiday
$1,881.00$1,602.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Relics Red Glitter Holiday
$18,393.00$16,005.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Dual Player Relics
$10,908.00$10,908.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Dual Player Relics Glitter Holiday
$44,577.00$44,577.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Dual Player Relics Red Glitter Holiday
$128,742.00$127,356.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Dual Player Relics Golden Glitter Holiday
$1,645,002.00$1,200,300.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Holiday Faux Relics
$145,149.00$143,382.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Holiday Relics
$4,902.00$4,002.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Holiday Relics Glitter Holiday
$14,733.00$12,003.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Holiday Relics Red Glitter Holiday
$38,757.00$24,006.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Holiday Relics Golden Glitter Holiday
$379,617.00$300,075.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Holiday Shaped Relic
$5,664.00$4,803.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Holiday Shaped Relic Glitter Holiday
$29,553.00$24,006.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Holiday Shaped Relic Red Glitter Holiday
$82,251.00$60,015.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Holiday Shaped Relic Golden Glitter Holiday
$987,000.00$480,120.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Holiday Faux Relics Autograph Variation
$143,739.00$139,884.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Holiday Relics Autograph Variation
$42,180.00$48,012.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autograph Relics
$10,488.00$6,861.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autograph Relics Glitter Holiday
$18,909.00$10,671.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autograph Relics Red Glitter Holiday
$82,251.00$68,589.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autograph Relics Golden Glitter Holiday
$435,444.00$342,945.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autographs
$3,411.00$2,670.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autographs Glitter Holiday
$17,277.00$8,004.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autographs Red Glitter Holiday
$38,859.00$30,009.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autographs Green Glitter Holiday
$77,922.00$60,015.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Player Autographs Golden Glitter Holiday
$400,137.00$342,945.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Oversized Die-Cut Ornament
$30.00$30.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Present Die-Cut Ornament
N/AN/A$45.00N/A$135.00$135.00
Base Chrome Variation Refractor
$180.00$180.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Purple
$300.00$300.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Blue
$450.00$450.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Blue Sparkle
$450.00$450.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Green
$900.00$900.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Green Sparkle
$900.00$900.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Gold
$1,782.00$1,782.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Orange
$3,564.00$3,564.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Black
$8,907.00$8,907.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Red
$17,814.00$17,814.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Superfractor
$89,058.00$89,058.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Refractor
$180.00$180.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Purple
$300.00$300.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Blue
$450.00$450.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Blue Sparkle
$450.00$450.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Green
$900.00$900.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Green Sparkle
$900.00$900.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Gold
$1,782.00$1,782.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Orange
$3,564.00$3,564.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Black
$8,907.00$8,907.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Red
$17,814.00$17,814.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Base Chrome Variation Superfractor
$89,058.00$89,058.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Foil Buyback Cards
N/AN/AN/A$2.08N/AN/A
Evergreen Pack
N/AN/AN/A$50.00N/AN/A
Exclusive Advent Calendar Pack
N/AN/AN/A$4.17N/AN/A
Foil Buyback Pack
N/AN/AN/A$25.00N/AN/A
Stocking Stuffer Pack
$18,000.00$18,000.00N/AN/AN/AN/A
Topps Buyback Pack
N/AN/AN/A$50.00N/AN/A

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