2024 Topps Inception Baseball Odds
About 2024 Topps Inception Baseball
As summer arrives in the hobby, 2024 Topps Inception Baseball returns with its signature museum-quality aesthetic, putting baseball's brightest young stars under a spotlight that veteran collectors and newcomers alike have come to admire. Released June 18, 2025, this art-driven product continues Topps' tradition of blending contemporary design with classic collecting elements, delivering a 125-card base set that balances the excitement of an impressive rookie class with established superstars and legendary figures from the game's history. What makes this year's Inception particularly compelling is the new twist woven into the base set - a series of 25 short-printed cards at the end of the checklist that adds an element of surprise to every break, with collectors averaging one of these elusive cards approximately every other hobby box. The 125-card canvas showcases 71 total rookie cards, including nine that carry short-print status, creating multiple tiers of chase potential right within the base set. This rookie-heavy approach positions Inception as a prime landing spot for collectors seeking first cardboard appearances of breakthrough performers, with the artistic design providing an elegant backdrop that distinguishes these rookie debuts from the chrome-heavy products that dominate much of the release calendar. Hobby boxes guarantee exactly one autograph or autographed memorabilia card alongside two parallels, creating a predictable hit structure that appeals to breakers seeking consistency in their case decisions. The product's positioning between spring releases and the flagship season makes it an attractive option for collectors looking to maintain momentum mid-year, with <a href='https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=2024+topps+inception+baseball+hobby+box&campid=5339114036&toolid=10001&mkcid=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>2024 Topps Inception hobby boxes</a> delivering reliable value through their guaranteed hit content and the ever-present possibility of landing one of those coveted short prints.
- Release Date: 2025-06-18
- 1 box format available to compare
Value Analysis
The values above represent the expected cost to obtain each card type based on the stated odds and current box price. These are calculated averages and actual results may vary.
Based on the current box price of approximately $375, you can expect to pay about $53.57 per card in this format. This provides 7 cards per box, offering a straightforward way to build your collection.
In terms of specific card categories, autographs can be expected at approximately $367.79 per auto, parallels come at around $176.62 per parallel, relics are expected at approximately $1107.53 per relic, based on the manufacturer-stated odds and box configuration. These expected values help you understand what you might find in each box.
Recommendations based on manufacturer-stated odds and box prices at time of last update. Actual prices and results may vary.
Missing Odds Data - Manufacturer Claims:
• Parallels/Inserts: 2 per box (manufacturer estimate)
• Autographs: 1 per box (manufacturer estimate)
Incomplete Odds Data Detected:
This odds sheet accounts for approximately 3 cards per box, but the actual box contains 7 cards. Base cards are not listed in the odds sheet.
Cost calculations may be inaccurate due to missing data.
| Category | Expected / Box | Cost / Hit | Hit Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parallels | 2.12 | $176.62 | 100% |
| Auto Relics | 0.34 | $1107.53 | 29% |
| Autographs | 0.68 | $550.65 | 51% |
Multi-Box Projections
| Boxes | Parallels | Auto Relics | Autographs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 5 | 10.6 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| 10 | 21.2 | 3.4 | 6.8 |
ℹ️ Methodology & FAQ
Expected / Box: We analyze how many packs are in a box and the odds for each card type, then calculate the average you'd get across many boxes.
Hit Probability: We calculate your chance of getting at least one card by combining the odds for all cards in that category. This accounts for each card being pulled independently.
Data Source: Manufacturer odds sheets. May be incomplete or contain errors.
Accuracy: These represent mathematical averages. Your actual results may vary.
Missing Categories: If a category doesn't appear, those cards aren't listed in the odds sheet. This could mean they don't exist in this product, or the data is incomplete.
Scroll horizontally to see all pack comparisons →
Hobby Box $ Enter box price | |
|---|---|
| Price | $375.00 |
| Cards / Box | 7 |
| Cost / Card | 53.57 |
| Packs | 1 |
| Cost / Pack | 375.00 |
| Card↑ | CostCost |
| $375.00 | |
| $1,875.00 | |
| $2,625.00 | |
| $3,750.00 | |
| $4,875.00 | |
| $7,500.00 | |
| $14,625.00 | |
| $36,375.00 | |
| $357,750.00 | |
| $90,750.00 | |
| $750.00 | |
| $30,375.00 | |
| $4,500.00 | |
| $9,000.00 | |
| $12,000.00 | |
| $18,000.00 | |
| $35,625.00 | |
| $88,875.00 | |
| $177,000.00 | |
| $708,000.00 | |
| $708,000.00 | |
| $13,500.00 | |
| $35,625.00 | |
| $71,250.00 | |
| $141,750.00 | |
| $1,387,875.00 | |
| $502,875.00 | |
| $502,875.00 | |
| $588,000.00 | |
| $1,156,500.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $44,625.00 | |
| $991,500.00 | |
| $44,625.00 | |
| $991,500.00 | |
| $991,500.00 | |
| $44,625.00 | |
| $991,500.00 | |
| $79,125.00 | |
| $1,576,875.00 | |
| $10,500.00 | |
| $40,875.00 | |
| $101,250.00 | |
| $201,750.00 | |
| $991,500.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $1,387,875.00 | |
| $3,469,125.00 | |
| $6,938,250.00 | |
| $34,689,750.00 | |
| $373,125.00 | |
| $1,156,500.00 | |
| $315,375.00 | |
| $1,576,875.00 | |
| $2,250.00 | |
| $3,000.00 | |
| $4,875.00 | |
| $5,625.00 | |
| $8,250.00 | |
| $12,000.00 | |
| $24,000.00 | |
| $44,625.00 | |
| $439,125.00 | |
| $9,000.00 | |
| $35,625.00 | |
| $867,375.00 | |
| $51,000.00 | |
| $101,250.00 | |
| $236,250.00 | |
| $3,469,125.00 | |
| $51,000.00 | |
| $101,250.00 | |
| $236,250.00 | |
| $3,469,125.00 | |
| $19,875.00 | |
| $44,625.00 | |
| $88,875.00 | |
| $1,734,750.00 | |
| $19,875.00 | |
| $44,625.00 | |
| $88,875.00 | |
| $1,734,750.00 | |
| $236,250.00 | |
| $1,156,500.00 | |
| $4,336,500.00 | |
| $963,750.00 | |
| $1,927,500.00 | |
| $8,672,625.00 | |
| $354,000.00 | |
| $1,387,875.00 | |
| $3,469,125.00 | |
| $6,938,250.00 | |
| $34,689,750.00 |
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